probability in gambling

The most important thing about probability in gambling

Most readers will agree that mathematics helps to win at gambling, but not all regular casino customers bother to study in depth this difficult science.

The average user is quite happy without the mathematical formulas, complex calculations and statistics. And do not accuse him of laziness or ignorance.

Information about the theoretical return and the superiority of the institution is provided by the developers of software. Basic strategies for most varieties of blackjack, poker and video poker can be found online.

What is probability?

It’s important to understand the basics. Let’s start with the basic term: “Probability is an estimate of the possibility of an event occurring.” In other words, it is an attempt to establish how high the odds are that a given event will occur.

probability work in gambling

In probability theory, this indicator is expressed as a number between zero and one:

  1. If an event never happens, its probability is zero;
  2. If it is guaranteed to happen, its probability is one.

Mathematicians adhere to this method, but ordinary users in ordinary life may use other ways of expressing probability. They are described below.

How to calculate the probability of an event in a game of chance?

To an untrained person, this task may seem incredibly difficult, but in simple situations the calculations will not cause difficulties. Let’s analyze it on an elementary example. You flip a coin playing an old game called “heads or tails. There are two possible outcomes. There is one positive outcome. Dividing one by two gives you 0.5 (or 50%). This is the probability of winning in this popular game of chance.

Now for a slightly more complicated roulette example. You play by betting on a red number. There are eighteen red numbers. This is the number of favorable events. Black numbers are also eighteen, but you also lose at zero. Accordingly, the total number of options is thirty-seven. 18/37=0.4864.

As you can see, the probability of winning is lower than in the classic orlik. The odds are no longer 50:50, but the payout on this bet is 1:1. This is how the mathematical superiority of the casino is formed, allowing the institution to stay in the plus for a long stretch.

If you recalculate the probability of winning at any of the European roulette bets, and then compare them to the odds of calculating the payout, you’ll get the same index of the house advantage on all positions.

How is the probability of an event expressed?

We’ve already said that in mathematical theory, probability is denoted by a number from zero to one. In everyday conversations outside of science, other ways of expression are often used:

  • Percentages – here it’s pretty clear: 50% or 95%;
  • Odds – negative and positive outcomes are contrasted: one to one, two to one, and the like;
  • Fractions – the format is as follows: 1/3, 1/5 and so on.

Next, an illustrative example. You play a roulette wheel without zeros with thirty-six numbers. You bet on black. There are eighteen black numbers. The probability of winning is 18/36 = 0.5. Otherwise, this figure can be expressed as: 50%, one to one, or ½.

Anticipating questions from players who are not familiar with No Zero Roulette, let us answer: Payouts at this roulette are usually less than at European roulette, or there are commissions which are deducted from winnings.

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